Thursday, October 4, 2012

Match up with Ravens inching closer

So first and foremost, let me apologize to all of my readers for such a slow start.  (By readers I mean all 3 of you!)  Anyway, maybe I should start this slow more often.  The Texans are off to anything but a slow start.  They've exploded out to the best start not only in franchise history, but Houston NFL history.  They also have quickly taken over the division with essentially a 3 game lead on everyone and reside at the top of almost every power ranking I can find.

But the consensus second best team in the AFC is on the schedule and just a few weeks away.  I would never overlook the Jets and definitely not the Packers, which may be one of the loudest, most hyped games in Texans history, but the Ravens game is lurking back just a few weeks away on this schedule and will probably tell us not only who these Texans really are, but also who the best team in the AFC is.  And for this fan's money, there is not a game on the schedule I want more than this one.  Sure the Titans and the Jags are big rivals, Green Bay would have the flash and ti would be great to beat Tom Brady, but this rivalry with Baltimore has been brewing for a few years and we still haven't got on the right side of the win loss column against the them.  The Texans always seem to be right on the cusp and then that stingy Ravens D just snatches it away, see 2010 OT Pick 6.

This game looks to be battle of one of the highest powered offenses in the league and statistically the best defense.  The Bulls on Parade Texans D will try to stop the high flying Ravens Offense in wh$%&...  Wait, I must have gotten that wrong!  The Ravens are the team with the nasty D that eats QBs and takes INTs to the house, and the Texans are the team that flings all over the field to a Hall of Famer like Andre Johnson and playmakers like Arian Foster and Owen Daniels right?  The Ravens are the team with Hall of Famers all over the defense and maybe the best MLB to ever suit up. And the Texans are the team with the WR with the highest yards per game average in NFL history.  The Ravens must be the stifling defense that we're talking about and the Texans must have that super prolific passing offense. One would think, except that is not the case this year.

The Ravens have really flipped the script on their identity.  The team that once was content beating you 10-3 with suffocating defense and just enough offense now has the 2nd best offense in the league and ironically the 3rd worst pass defense.  Joe Flacco has seemingly turned the corner in Baltimore and is having a Pro Bowl starting caliber year and is leading the AFC in passing yards.  Ray Rice has become one of the, if not the best weapon in the NFL and Torrey Smith leads the AFC in TD receptions.  But on the other side of the ball, without Terrell Suggs, the Baltimore defense is a fraction of its former self.  I'm not sure I would ever sleep on this defense that is still littered with all time greats but the proof is in the pudding.  The Ravens are 23rd in total defense and 29th in pass defense.  Now that could be a product of teams having to play catchup to that great offense and throwing the ball all day, but a team that was 3rd in the league in sacks last year is a middle of the road team now at getting to the QB, especially considering all the chances they get to rush the QB. Only 3 teams have had more passes attempted against them and 2 of them are in the dredges of the NFL.  Without reigning defensive player of the year Terrell Suggs, this defense just can't seem to get to the QB and the aging legs of Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are having a hard time keeping up in pass coverage.

Meanwhile, the Texans have had a similar flip over the last two years.  A team that has been a perennial top 5 offense under Gary Kubiak and Matt Schaub are a lack luster 14th in total offense, but conversely, lead the league in total defense and scoring defense.  The 8 to 80 hookup that has kept this team in close games in the past and brought this team back from the dead in others has been a secondary option this year to a power running game that features maybe the best set of backs in the league. Statistically the numbers are down on the offense but when your defense keeps getting you short fields and you have a  20 point lead in the 3rd quarter, you can afford to run the ball into a line of defenders, especially when you are #2 in the NFL in time of possession. This Texans defense on the other hand, a unit that in 2010 was one of the worst in all of football is now THE best.  The team leads the league in points and yards allowed.  They have so far, the leagues best defensive player who leads the NFL in sacks from a position that doesn't normally get a lot of sacks.  They are 2nd in the AFC in INTs, 2nd in the AFC in sacks, 1st in the league in fewest yards per pass attempt, and one of the most impressive stats, they are #1 in 3rd down percentage. This Texans D is nasty, they get to the QB, they ball hawk, and they get off the field.  They remind me a lot of the Ravens defenses that have built that franchise into what it is today.

So yes, this is a struggle between a great offense and great defense, but the teams are not in the roles you'd expect.   I still expect this to be a very good game, and again, I would never sleep on Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, or Haloti Ngata.  But unlike last year's Divisional Playoff game, I expect the Texans to come out of Reliant stadium with a W.

1 comment:

  1. Josh, you are right on in your assessment of the Baltimore rivalry. The tide has turned for both team and now the Texans will no longer have excuses for poor performance against the Ravens.

    Our Defense(it's capitalized on purpose) is living up to their best potential. Connor Barwin has expressed that the "D" is having fun, the atmosphere is competitive, and the play is cooperative. These are all adding up to a cohesiveness that is instrumental to the success of the whole team. Even our historically awful secondary is showing flashes of greatness with clutch interceptions and QB killing Safety Blitzes. For the first time I'm feeling comfortable with the defense on the field.

    Our offense has struggled a bit but I do not think that is indicative our future performance. Our once solid O-line is struggling a bit in the zone blocking and as a result Foster isn't getting the production expected of him. One very great thing I have seen is the Patriotsesque usage of our FB/TE. James Casey reminds me of a different type of Football Player from Houston, Geoff Cameron. Such a versatile player who has the statistically best hands on the field. I am very, very pleased with our seemingly new found usage of the checkdown receiver for modest gains when the deep outs are covered. Schaub is finally a seasoned and confident leader on the field. He is engaging all the eligible receivers on the field which is going a long way in uncovering opponent's weaknesses. Now Kubiak just needs to get the play calling right to keep the other team off balance.

    All in all I am thoroughly excited for every game that I watch all the way from Seattle. Erin and I are the only 2 Texans fans in Seattle it seems but are vocal at every bar we go to. One great thing is that no one talks smack to us this year... Bulls on parade!

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